[MARKET UPDATE] Rising Premiums for Property-Casualty Insurers

The property-casualty industry is cyclical – a function of insurers being unable to know their cost of goods sold (i.e. claims) until well after the policies were incepted. One can see in the chart below where we are in the cycle1.

Average Commercial Premium Rate Change, by Account Size


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The Repo Market: Why Investors Should be Concerned

Near the end of the third quarter, the overnight funding market (commonly referred to as the “repo market”) exhibited a level of instability not seen since the financial crisis. However, many individuals don’t fully understand the implications of this disruption, nor do they have a full grasp of...

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Leverage Cycles, Banks and Our Outlook for the Remainder of 2019

“After a ten-year post-financial crisis period of consistent underlying conditions for equity investing, fundamentals are shifting.”

Since the Federal Reserve (Fed) began employing its accommodative monetary policies, it has fueled a leveraging cycle and we believe it’s a virtual certainty that...

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A Discussion of the U.S. Debt Situation: Consumer and Government Debt

“The national debt is akin to student loans – while not an immediate concern, it could become a major problem.”

Consumer Debt

Last week, we discussed the state of the corporate leverage. Consumer debt is also an area of concern, but to a lesser extent than corporate debt. Domestic consumer debt...

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A Discussion of the U.S. Debt Situation: Corporate Debt

“Debt, we've learned, is the match that lights the fire of every crisis. Every crisis has its own set of villains - pick your favorite: bankers, regulators, central bankers, politicians, overzealous consumers, credit rating agencies - but all require one similar ingredient to create a true...

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Statutory Data: A Trove of Valuable Bank Information

“First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-level thinkers know that success in investing is the antithesis of simple…Your thinking has to be better than that of others…you must find an edge they don’t have.  You must think of something they haven’t thought of, see...

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Reflections from Working at a Large Fund Complex

Prior to joining Prospector in 2003, I worked at Neuberger Berman for seven years. I initially joined the firm as an insurance analyst, but soon began following many different types of companies, from small caps to large diversified financial services firms. I joined the Neuberger Berman Genesis...

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Investing in Convertible Bonds with Attractive Risk/Reward Characteristics

“We are attracted to the downside protection that a convertible security’s bond feature offers, while also offering the ability to capture a significant portion of the upside in the issuer’s stock, given the convertible feature.”

At Prospector, we have had a long-standing attraction to...

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The Many Benefits of Analyzing Non-GAAP Data, Part 3 of 3

Over the past two weeks we have explored the concept of using other types of data (non-GAAP) to enhance our analysis on publicly-traded companies. This week, we focus on Consumer Companies

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The Many Benefits of Analyzing Non-GAAP Data, Part 2 of 3

Last week, we began to explore the concept of using other types of data (non-GAAP) to enhance our analysis on publicly-traded companies. While the focus was on insurance companies, this week we are focusing on another industry we enjoy getting under the hood of: Banks. Next week, in the third...

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